Vladimir Putin declared that Ukraine, a small country bordered next by Russia, should be in its charge since they are “brother countries” while the Ukrainians seek independence.
Conflict calls for war, and war signifies tragedy.
"Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered one of the biggest human displacement crises and exacted a heavy toll on human and economic life,” said Anna Bjerde, Vice President of the World Bank for the Europe and Central Asia region. What are the possible future consequences if this war rages on? Were there no preventions in the first place? In the following article, we will take a closer look at the economic turmoil this war has brought to the globe, also in a broader perspective, the following impacts that would ensue.
On February 24, the war started with a full-scale invasion from Russia, and on that day, there were more 11.1 millions of citizens in Ukraine evacuated to other countries in order to live a peaceful life. The Russian army invaded to the capital city Kyiv, and the war since then has been kept fighting until now. So far, it has been estimated by the US that there were 100,000 soldiers dead for both Ukrainian and Russian armies. Besides that, 40,000 innocent civilians were killed in the war as well as they were caught up by the soldiers in the war. This is really an enormous number of deaths. The whole world wanted this war to end because Russia has warned the world with their nuclear bombs so all the other countries are frightened that they would irritate President Putin and the world will be eliminated.
Is the war going to end soon? The war has been almost ongoing for a year, and there is not any information hinting that either one of the countries is going to put their head down and ask for the war to cease. A poll has been held in the Ukraine for the perspectives of the citizens towards the war. The results are that the majorities holds the opinion to fight with Russia until victory instead of negotiating to stop the war. Nevertheless, this number increased from 70% to 86% in only one and half month from September to Mid-October. Although the Ukrainians are well united and mentally strong, this war would not last long. Not only Ukraine, Russia also must face many issues. Natural gas has been a major energy for the Russia heating system because of freezing weather in Russia. Unfortunately, 30% of their natural gas demand was imported from the EU market, so they have to find other ways filling up this shortage of natural gas because this war caused them to lose the ability trade with European countries since the European Union stands for the Ukraine government. Therefore, Russia has to rearrange their usage of energy by saving energy and creating by themselves, however, this method cannot hold forever, so Russia has to finish the war quickly before they face real energy crisis that might cause tremendous slump for their economy.
It is devastating for both sides.
What’s most significant is that the price of oil has raised rapidly to 125 US dollar per barrel, and the price of is more than doubled of the price before. Consequently, the cost of energy and war has been rising rapidly for Russia, creating a heavy burden for the Russian economy and all of this was to stop Ukraine become independent from Russia. Humongous damages were made during the war. Evidence from OCED illustrated that the real GDP growth of Russia is -3.9% while the rest of the world is increasing constantly. Similarly for Ukraine, it has been estimated that they had a loss of $349 billion to $750 billion for rebuilding destructions and this number is 1.5 times the economy of Ukraine in year 2021. As a result, it will be a great challenge for the Ukrainian government, especially when they have faced a vast contraction in their economy caused by the war. According to the World Bank, 35% of Ukraine’s GDP will possibly fade away in 2022.
Also, since September, as the Russians kept occupying Ukrainian territories, two counteroffensives launched by the Ukrainian army started to fight back. Within only a few days, the Ukrainian armies had a great breakthrough in the front line, gaining back the terrains of their country.
For both southern and eastern area of Ukraine, a great region was fight back by the counteroffensives of Ukrainian army, leading to a stronger morale of the citizens and the soldiers domestically. As the conflict keeps developing, in the future, the balance of war will be constantly tilting back towards the Ukraine side until Russia launching missiles to the territories of Ukraine again. Is Putin going to let them fight back like that? As far as I am concerned, there will be missiles launching to attack Ukraine again, and the war is not going to end soon since Russia shows no sign of stop invading Ukraine and President Putin announced that they will be launching more bombs to Ukraine in the future. Therefore, it will last for years and resulting significant damages to the economy of both countries.
In conclusion, from my perspective, the war between Russia and Ukraine will continue and lasts for years until a country with great power such as US or China interfere the war. While the war is kept ongoing, both countries will not choose to give up their positions. However, Ukraine has been running out of money for rebuilding their countries and Russia has faced issues being excluded by many other countries and cost of gaining resources has been kept raising. Therefore, it will be not beneficial for both countries’ economy as the war continues.
Comments